The nightmare scenario is vivid: It’s the middle of the 3rd Quarter. The game is tied. The bar is packed shoulder-to-shoulder. The energy is electric.
Then, the bartender taps you on the shoulder and whispers the four scariest words in the industry: "We kicked the Light Lager."
Panic. You run to the cooler. Empty.
In that moment, you aren't just losing sales; you are losing customers who will remember your bar as the place that "ran dry" during the biggest sporting event of the year.
For the 2026 Super Bowl, relying on "gut feeling" or just "ordering double what we did last week" is a rookie move. With margins tighter than ever, you can't afford to run out, but you also can't afford to have $5,000 of excess inventory sitting dead on your shelves until March.
It’s time to stop guessing and start forecasting. Here is how to use hard data to predict the Big Game rush with sniper-like precision.
To predict your stock, you first have to understand the beast. The Super Bowl behaves differently than New Year's Eve or St. Patrick's Day.
On NYE, people binge champagne and shots in a compressed 3-hour window. The Super Bowl is an endurance sport.
The Duration: It is a 4 to 5-hour drinking event.
The Volume: Guests drink slower, but steadily.
The Product Mix: The "Beer-to-Liquor" ratio flips upside down.
If you use your standard Saturday night product mix data to order for Sunday, you will end up with too much vodka and not nearly enough draft beer.
Open your POS or Backbar inventory dashboard. We are going digging.
Don't just look at last week. You need to pull the "Item Sales Report" from Super Bowl Sunday last year. If you didn't tag it properly, look for the date (February 9, 2025).
Look for these three metrics:
The "Domestic Spike": How much more domestic light beer did you sell compared to a normal Sunday? (Usually 300-400% higher).
The "Shot Slump": Did high-end cocktails tank? (Usually yes. People don't sip Old Fashioneds while screaming at a TV).
The "Wing-man" Effect: Check your food ticket times from last year. Did the kitchen crash cause people to stop ordering drinks? If you've fixed the kitchen flow this year, expect beverage sales to go up.
You have last year's numbers. Now you need to adjust them for today.
If your overall sales volume has been trending up 10% year-over-year for the last three months, you need to apply that multiplier to last year's Super Bowl numbers.
The Formula:
(Last Year's Super Bowl Usage) x (1.10 Growth Trend) = Baseline Prediction
Warning: Don't forget the N/A Revolution. In 2024 and 2025, Non-Alcoholic beer sales surged during sporting events. The "Sober Curious" crowd loves football too. If you only stock two 6-packs of N/A beer, you are leaving money on the table. Plan for N/A volume to be double what it was last year.
Forecasting is an art; operations is a science. You need a buffer.
In supply chain logistics, this is called Safety Stock. For a high-stakes event like the Super Bowl, relying on "Just-in-Time" inventory is suicide.
The Safety Stock Formula for Events:
(Projected Usage) x 1.25 = Ordering Target
This 25% buffer protects you against:
Overtime (The game going long).
Spillage/Breakage (Rowdy fans imply broken glass).
The "Whale" Table (The one group that drinks way faster than average).
Pro-Tip: For draft beer, if your math says you need 4.2 kegs, you don't order 5. You order 6. Why? Because changing a keg during a 4th quarter drive is a nightmare. You want backup kegs staged and ready to switch in seconds, not buried in the back of the walk-in.
Data isn't just about what they drink, but when.
Kickoff - 1st Quarter: High volume, rapid service needed. Pre-batch your Bloody Marys (if early) and have pitchers ready.
2nd Quarter - Halftime: This is the peak. The "Halftime Rush" is the single most stressful 20 minutes of the year.
3rd Quarter: The "bloat" sets in. Beer sales might slow; this is when you upsell shots or spirits to wake people up.
4th Quarter: Closeout anxiety. People stop ordering pitchers and switch to pints/bottles.
Adjust your bar prep accordingly. Don't have your barbacks cutting limes during halftime; they should be running glass racks.
The Super Bowl is one of the few days a year where demand is almost guaranteed. The only thing standing between you and a record-breaking sales day is your inventory.
If you rely on messy clipboards and guesses, you’re gambling. If you use data, trends, and safety stock formulas, you’re playing to win.
Stock heavy on the light beer, prep the N/A options, and for the love of football—order extra CO2 gas. Nothing kills a party faster than a flat tap system.
Q: How much extra beer should I order for the Super Bowl?
A: A safe rule of thumb is to look at your average busy Saturday night volume and multiply specifically your light lager and domestic draft volume by 1.5x to 2x, depending on your venue's capacity and TVs.
Q: What sells best during the Super Bowl?
A: Volume shifts heavily toward beer (specifically domestic light lagers and pitchers), seltzers, and "bomb" shots. Complex craft cocktails usually see a significant dip in sales volume.
Q: How do I calculate par levels for a one-time event?
A: Use the "Growth-Adjusted Historical" method. Take usage from the same event last year, add your current year-over-year growth percentage, and add a 20-25% "Safety Stock" buffer.